Economic Outlook

SEPTEMBER 2020

LABOR STATISTICS

COVID-19 IMPACT ANALYSIS OVERVIEW

The phased reopening of the local economy has resulted in more hiring, less employee furloughs, increased consumer demand, less cancellations of orders or services and a slight decrease in the number of businesses reporting decreased sales.

Analysis

Both surveys included a range of overall negative (Extreme, High, Moderate) and positive (Extreme, Moderate, Steady) impacts. “Extreme Negative” would be possibly going out of business while “Extreme Positive” would be booming business with higher demand and higher sales. During the shutdown, about 9% of respondents in the April survey were worried that they may go out of business. Only 1.6% of respondents had that same concern in the June survey. The majority of responses were somewhere in the middle. Below is a table showing what respondents thought the overall impact would be on their business in April (during the shutdown) versus June (during the phased reopening).

Analysis

The average decrease in sales for these respondents is 42.3% which is down from the 47.8% average decrease reported in April.
The average increase in sales for these respondents is 14.2% which is up from the 12% average increase reported in April.

Conclusions

Based on the results of the Knoxville Chamber’s June 2020 COVID-19 economic impact survey, it appears that the phased reopening of the local economy has resulted in more hiring, less employee furloughs, increased consumer demand, less cancellations of orders or services and a slight decrease in the number of businesses reporting decreased sales.

COVID-19 economic disaster relief funding from the federal government – particularly the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) – is helping businesses in the region to survive. Over 13,000 businesses in the region have received PPP funding and over 142,300 jobs have been retained. According to labor data released by the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, unemployment rates in Knox County and the Knoxville MSA have dropped from highs of 12.9% and 13.5% respectively during the April shutdown to 8.6% and 9% respectively in May during the phased reopening.